In the end, the ‘mother of all by-election battles’ turned out to be a rather one-sided win for Congress candidate, K. S. Sabarinathan, who defeated CPI(M)’s M. Vijayakumar by a margin of over 10,000 votes. Sabarinathan is the son of late Speaker, G. Karthikeyan whose death necessitated the by-election.

The victory is all the more remarkable and sweet for the Congress as its candidate led in seven out of the eight panchayats that form Aruvikkara constituency. The CPI(M) had the mortification to see its known stronghold panchayats crumble before the onslaught of the young Congress candidate, who obviously attracted the lion’s share of the new and young voters in the constituency besides reaping the benefits of a sympathy wave.

An immediate upshot of the by-election verdict is that Chief Minister Oommen Chandy would emerge stronger. A loss in Aruvikkara would have proved disastrous for Chandy. But now that he has won a convincing victory, the growing demand for a change in leadership, made by the rival I group led by Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala in the state Congress leadership would die natural death. Chandy would, at least for the time being, remain a monarch of all that he surveys in Congress politics. He has also termed the victory as an endorsement of the performance of his government.

The result has come as a big setback and disappointment for the CPI(M) and the LDF. The party had pulled out all the stops to ensure victory, with Pinarayi Vijayan himself in charge of the organizational work and Achuthanandan spearheading the election campaign. But all to no avail, and the party, again failed to end the jinx of by-election defeats since 2011.

The defeat must induce serious introspection in the CPI(M) in particular and the LDF in general. The LDF will have to take a close and serious look at why the front has not been able to arrest the onward march of the UDF.

Party sources attribute the Congress success to the polarization of minority votes in favour of the Congress and the erosion in the CPI(M)’s vote-bank. The LDF, which had a poll percentage of 39 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, has suffered a 7 per cent loss(32 per cent) this time around.

And the beneficiary of the CPI(M)’s vote loss is the BJP, which has recorded an impressive performance with its candidate, veteran O. Rajagopal polling over 34,000 votes – a five-fold rise from the 6900 votes polled by the BJP candidate in the Lok Sabha elections! Of course, the BJP’s show has been made possible by the shift of a sizable section of CPI(M)’s traditional Hindu votes. The solid support extended by caste organizations like SNDP also contributed handsomely to the BJP’s good performance.

The aggressive campaign the party launched prompted the minorities to vote en bloc for the Congress candidate as was evident in minorities-dominated panchayats. And the loser in this consolidation of minorities’ votes was the CPI(M).

The CPI(M)’s campaign suffered a setback also because it allowed Kerala Congress(B) chief R. Balakrishna Pillai to campaign for the party candidate. This tactics backfired and weakened the LDF’s anti-corruption campaign against Finance Minister K M Mani who is in the eye of the Bar bribery scam. Pillai, it may be mentioned, had been jailed following the Supreme Court verdict in the infamous Edamalayar case. And the man who ensured a jail term for Pillai was none other than VS, whose tireless fight resulted in Pillai being imprisoned for corruption and irregularities.

The poll defeat must induce serious introspection in the CPI(M) and the LDF. The front will have to reinvent itself and rework its strategy to counter the growing UDF influence among the caste and community organizations. Otherwise, it could soon be the beginning of the end for the CPI(M) in Kerala, its last bastion, as well. Remember West Bengal has already slipped out of the CPI(M)’s hands. The loss of Kerala is a luxury the party simply cannot think of. The task is cut out for the party’s theoreticians and think tanks.

It is introspection time for the victorious Congress, too. True, the party has won a prestigious by-election. But its policy of appeasement of religious, caste and community organisations and parties has inflicted immense damage to the state polity. If the Congress and the UDF do not change its tactics, the beneficiary would be the BJP whose growth both the Congress and the UDF wants to counter. (IPA)