The I group led by Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala is unhappy not because the Congress candidate won the Aruvikkatra by-election. But they are certainly dismayed by the victory margin of over 10,000 votes. The group would have preferred victory with a narrow margin. That would suit their long-term strategy: of seeking a change of leadership. But the comfortable majority with which Congress candidate K S Sabarinathan won has upset their calculations. At least for the time being, the I group will have to lie low and defer their fight for making their leader the Chief Ministerial candidate for the next assembly elections, due in May next year.

It was this frustration of the I group at having been stopped in their tracks that was reflected in the statement made by the State INTUC president, RF. Chandrashekharan, a prominent I group leader, the other day.

In his statement, Chandrashekharan said the credit for the Aruvikkara victory cannot be given entirely to Chandy! It was the united fight which the party put up that made the victory possible, said Chandrashekharan, who spares no opportunity to take a dig at Oommen Chandy.

The State INTUC chief is not happy about the policy of appeasement practised by the Chandy government either. The party won at Aruvikkara because of the consolidation of minority votes in favour of the Congress, he said, adding that such communal polarization is not in the interests of either the Congress or the state.

The outburst by Chandrashekharan shows that though the I group is reconciled to the inevitable in the short term, it is in no mood to abandon the idea of lobbying for the CM’s post in the next election.

There is substance in the argument advanced by certain I group leaders that one swallow does not make a summer; that the Aruvikkara victory is an exception rather than the rule.

Congress sources close to the I group admit that the assembly elections will be a different ball game altogether. Aruvikkara, a traditional Congress seat, has stood by the party for the last 24 years. The Congress candidate won mainly because of the sympathy wave for Sabarinathan, son of Speaker G. Karthikeyan whose death necessitated the by-election. They say that the issues will be different in the assembly polls, and the anti-incumbency factor would be more pronounced in that battle. The issue of corruption will also have a crucial bearing on the outcome, they admit.

That being the case, Chandrashekharan’s outburst constitutes a warning of sorts to the Chief Minister and the A group. The succinct message is: Don’t let the Aruvikkara victory go to your head. And do not be lulled into a false sense of complacency. In the ultimate analysis, the I group may have lost the battle. But it is certainly in no mood to lose the war without putting up a stiff fight. Oommen Chandy has been forewarned. And he will certainly be fore-armed, the consummate politician that he is. (IPA Service)