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No one seems to have a clue to the psyche of Indian voters, which has seen perceptible changes in the last four decades. The period of this transition has put political parties and their leaders on tenterhooks. Socio-political trends in the country are too diverse to give any comfort to parties on what could happen in the 2019 general elections. Obviously, they will have to work hard to win a majority. The optimism recently exuded by an international media organisation that Modi may remain prime minister until 2029 is too impressionistic and runs contrary to the socio-political trends revealed in media, social-media, and the results of elections held in the last 46 months.

There is nothing to be surprised if India has attracted a tiny Rs.1.17 crore ($180,000) as foreign direct investment (FDI) in defence production under the “Make in India” framework in the last four years. The reason is simple. India is the world’s largest arms importer. And, it may remain so for many years to come. Why should an arms manufacturer-exporter expand its production base to India to spend more, earn less and subject itself to plethora of local rules, regulations and inspections? This explains why the liberalisation of the FDI policy in defence failed to impress powerful foreign arms manufacturer-exporters to set up shops in India. China, India’s main military tormentor, is the world’s third largest defence power — after the USA and Russia — and the second largest in military spending, after the USA. China is continuously expanding its defence manufacturing capacity and increasingly arming India’s other border states such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and even the small Maldives. Under the circumstances, India has little choice but to raise and update its weaponry through higher imports of sophisticated arms and weapons for its army, navy, air force and para-military services. Armament exporters to India are taking full advantage of the situation.

In what is widely viewed as the most dangerous and consequential move of his presidency thus far, Donald Trump ousted H.R. McMaster as National Security Advisor on March 22 and replaced him with the ultra war hawk, John Bolton.

The just-concluded Rajya Sabha elections have made some changes to the seating arrangements in the Upper House. Maybe some weeping of tears and gnashing of teeth, too. But ‘Bua Mayawati’ must not be among those weeping tears. She is the gnashing of teeth sort. ‘Bhatija Akhilesh’ was tested in Friday’s Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh — especially after the aunt had done a favour to the nephew and made him victor in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls — and the red-hatted boy-marvel failed her.

It may sound ludicrous that Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is working on the modalities to stage a comeback to the Mahagathbandhan. In view of the acute hostility between JD(U) and RJD and the mudslinging between the leaders of the two parties, this appears to be a remote possibility. But it is a known fact that Nitish can go to any extent for the sake of his political survival.

Now that US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on a host of Chinese goods worth some $60 billion and kicked off responses the world over, unpredictability has given way to some vague predictability. One can safely say that countries will react, currencies will realign, financial markets would be in turmoil and global growth prospects somewhat dim. Unless, of course, the principal target of all the rhetoric and actions of the US president remains somewhat submissive. From the first reaction, that seems not too unlikely.

Each plenary session of the Congress has sent a message for the people. Perhaps, the most important one was when the Congress completed 100 years of its existence. The centenary plenum was held in Bombay in June, 1985 where Rajiv Gandhi, who headed the Congress and was Prime Minister, made his famous “power broker” speech. The Bombay plenary was held when the Congress was at the peak, with Rajiv Gandhi having got highest ever—over 400 seats—in the Lok Sabha and ruled most of states.

A report on financial status of Indian Railways presented with the General Budget 2018-19 on February 1, 2018 in Parliament paints dismal picture of its financial health indicating that the railways have to remain financially viable on borrowed money from market and other sources. As a result of merger of Railways budget with the General Budget since 2017-18, Railways escaped dedicated media focus and for that matter public scrutiny of its overall functioning altogether, the casualty being the impugned report on its financial status from public notice. That is how Indian Railways have lost its sheen in public glare. It comes on the fore in public domain only when accidents take place with heavy casualties.

After nearly six months of haggling, the three-party German coalition puck is in the goal box. The suspense is over. For the fourth time in a row the country will again be run by Angela Merkel.

Nearly three years since Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader, his standing has drastically changed. His opponents in the parliamentary party are a lot quieter. The Labour Party apparatus is at last being reshaped to match the new reality. Recent polls indicate Labour has a real chance of winning a general election.