INDIA’S PUBLIC DEBT LEVEL IS TOO HIGH TO BECOME COMFORTABLE
LOW GDP GROWTH MAKES DEBT AFFORDABILITY VERY WEAK
2022-06-06 12:21
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It is a matter of serious concern that India’s public debt level is among the highest in emerging economies while the country’s debt affordability is among the weakest. Generally, the average threshold limit prescribed for public debt-to-GDP ratio is 77 percent with each additional percentage point of debt costs 0.017 percentage points of annual real growth. The effect is even more pronounced in emerging markets where the threshold for debt-to-GDP ratio is preferred at 64 percent. India recorded a government debt-to-GDP ratio at 73.95 percent in 2020. According to Moody’s Investor Service, “with the exception of Chile, most of the 11 emerging markets have weak government effectiveness, suggesting potential risks executing fiscal reforms or consolidation plans.” The global rating agency further states that India’s (rated Baa3 negative) debt affordably is among the weakest alongside Ghana. Across the 11 emerging markets, India, South Africa and Ghana have the highest public debt and weakest debt affordability,” the agency added.