But the Congress has been in a dilemma over Bengal because of simultaneous polls in Kerala where it is locked in a bitter power battle with the Marxists. It would be a political tightrope for the Congress to justify its public call against the CPI-M in Kerala just when it seeks a vote against Mamata hand in hand with Communists in Bengal. A way out has to be found. The awkward situation over Kerala may restrain the Congress from a full-fledged alliance but an understanding with the Left Front is possible, say Congress leaders and as per the CPI(M) central committee resolution, alliance talks are to start in Bengal.

The state Congress heavyweights—Chief Adhir Chaudhury and important leaders, Abdul Mannan and Abu Hasem Khan are all for tie up. In the Marxists camp, Bengal leaders including former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya want to go with the Congress. The reason: Even during the peak of Mamata’s popularity in 2011, the CPI-M—Congress combined vote share was 49.96% against the TMC’s 39%

The Muslim voters in Bengal followed the Congress once and then the CPI-M till Banerjee—during her anti-left movement in Muslim dominated Nandigram—discovered how an undivided Muslim vote bank could get her to power and keep her there, safe and warm. She is confident of a comfortable return to power for the second term.

It is this confidence that should serve as the TMC’s main election plank. “There couldn’t be any doubt over the outcome of election. The Marxists are weak, they will never be a major challenger this election.

In Tamil Nadu, Congress has resurrected its tried-and-tested alliance with the DMK to consolidate votes in the state’s multi-party electoral landscape. Even so, for the Congress, it will be a tough task to sell this alliance as a better alternative to the ruling AIADMK. The pact helped the UPA-I rule for five years but it must be remembered that it also led to 2G spectrum scandal, which led to the UPA-II’s defeat.

The Assam Gana Parishad’s (AGP) decision to go it alone in the upcoming assembly election in Assam, after failing to stitch a pre-poll tie-up with the BJP, may prove to be a decisive factor in the coming poll. The BJP and the Bodo People’s Front had already agreed to contest together, and inclusion of AGP in the alliance would have made it a formidable force. As things stand, Assam is likely to see multi-cornered contest with the Congress, the AGP, the BJP-BPF and Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front fighting independently. There are also smaller groups, ranging from communists to tribal outfits, who may nibble away small slices of the votes. A fragmented opposition generally tends to benefit the ruling party in the absence of a strong anti-incumbency.

But ethnic, regional and religious diversity makes it extremely difficult to predict electoral trends in Assam. The big story of the state’s politics in recent years has been the rise of the BJP. After hovering around a 12 per cent vote share in the 2006 and 2011 assembly elections , the party cornered 37 per cent of the vote in the 2014 general elections. The congress vote share dropped by 10 per cent from its assembly count to 30 per cent in the general elections and many influential leaders of the Congress left the party for BJP.

The dynamics of an assembly election is different from that of a Lok Sabha poll and local factors, including leadership, governance, alliances and nature of the campaign, matter. Amidst rise of the BJP and decline of the AGP, the three-time CM Tarun Gogai is seeking to present the Congress as a best option.. Gogoi has turned the incumbency question on its head by a campaign on the poll promises of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is also attempting to project himself as a custodian of Assamese identity in a bid to paint the BJP as an outsider ignorant of local cultural nuances. Assamese sub-nationalism continues to be a subterranean influence in the state politics and the Congress seems eager to tap the constituency, which was originally with the AGP. Gogoi’s criticism of the AIUDF, which draws support from migrant Muslims, is meant to bolster his claim to this sub-nationalist agenda.

Identity politics has a contentious record in the state. It can unleash dark forces and cause uncontrollable churn in Assam’s ethnic, religious and regional cauldron. Gogoi—and his rivals—should be careful when they tread this ground. (IPA Service)