The by-election had been caused by the death of Indian Union Muslim League national president, E Ahmed MP. As expected, the IUML retained the seat with its general secretary P K Kunhalikutty winning it by a huge margin of over 1,71,000 votes.

The only point of interest was whether Kunhalikutty would surpass the record of over 1,94,000-vote majority Ahmed had managed to secure in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. That has not happened. All the same, it is a creditable victory for the IUML strongman who now shifts to the national scene even as he remains firmly rooted in Kerala politics. The margin of victory would have been higher if polarization of the Muslim vote had happened. It has not. The fact is that the votes commanded by smaller parties like the SDPI, Welfare Party and the PDP, which did not field their candidates, was shared by both the LDF and the UDF.

The most important outcome of the by-election is that the BJP failed to improve its vote share. The party, which had bagged over 64,000 votes in 2014, had to be content with only a marginal increase of 900 odd votes this time around. The expected Hindu polarization, which the BJP expected would happen, simply did not materialize.

The inescapable conclusion is that the BJP’s communal tactics which helped the party to score a spectacular victory in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand failed it in Kerala’s predominantly secular environment. The setback constitutes a rude jolt to the forces of communalism who were hoping to more than double the BJP’s vote share in the state. It will take a lot more for the Lotus to bloom in the secular waters of the state.

The central as well as the state leadership of the BJP are, understandably, upset over the dismal 7 per cent vote the party polled in Malappuram. Its vote percentage has actually come down from 7.69 in 2014 to 7.01 now. The state leadership has come under severe criticism for the party’s poor performance. The debacle is being attributed, among others, to the conscience vote call made by the general secretary of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP). The SNDP, it may be recalled, is unhappy with the BJP for its failure to honour the promises made to its political wing, the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena(BDJS).

The outcome has come as a big relief for the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) too. The LDF’s feat in polling more than one lakh votes as against its show in 2014 – an increase of over 8 per cent - is no mean achievement, given the odds against which it was fighting. For once, it has silenced the critics who had expected a big drop in its vote share. This shows that there was clearly no anti-government sentiment in the constituency. That way, the outcome has spared the LDF the blushes. A fall in the vote share would have been an acute embarrassment for the LDF.

As for the UDF, the victory is certainly a morale-booster. True, the outcome in Malappuram was predictable as it is a stronghold of the IUML. The UDF functioned as a united team this time, with the Congress and the IUML managing to sink the differences at the local level. The firm support the Kerala Congress (M) extended to Kunhalikutty also helped ensure a smooth victory.

The outcome is bound to have an adverse impact on the efforts of the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP in the state to firm up its base. Speculation is rife that the BJP’s main ally, the BDJS, already unhappy, could drift towards either the UDF or the LDF. The only hope for the BJP is an understanding or a tie-up with the Christian community through KC(M) chief K M Mani. No wonder, the Malappuram result has cast a pall of gloom in the BJP camp. (IPA Service)