In the post-lockdown scenario threat to life from the coronavirus disease will still be haunting people in absence of vaccines or medicines which are still being developed. Even when vaccines and medicines will be invented, the limitation of their production and their supply to individuals in time and in sufficient quantities will pose a problem. Secondly, India does not have sufficient medical infrastructure and personnel to effectively handle large number of patients. Therefore, the first strategy must be to avoid its infection. WHO rightly says that we must identify, test, trace, and treat infected people, and that is the only solution. India lacks far behind than many other countries in this regard. The government has been criticized for not conducting sufficient number of tests.

How can you know the actual numbers of COVID-19 infected persons if you don’t test the suspected ones? However, for this the government needs to substantially increase spending on health. It will be a wise decision to establish dedicated hospitals for viral infections in all the districts to deal with any future shocks. India has decided to establish dedicated hospitals for Corona in every district by 2022 with the help of World Bank. However, we must enlarge its scope and ambit. Improvement in access to health facilities for all must be ensured by the government.

The assessments of the World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the International Monetary Fund point towards a need for three other types of strategies while deciding to give COVID-19 active response and expenditure support to India. The first of them is related directly to about 800 million people of the country including families below the poverty line, farmers, health care workers, women, children, senior citizens, people with disabilities, low wage earners, and construction worker. The total population of the country today is about 1370 million, and within seven years we will be the largest populated country of the world. It means India will have largest number of stomach to feed and lives to save.

During the lockdown, this group of people has totally lost their livelihoods, with little opportunity with them to have any in near future. The lockdown has disrupted and closed almost all the avenues of their livelihoods. Even after lockdown period is over, the informal sector and MSMEs that employ over 90 per cent of the workforce, will take time to restart. In the meantime, government will need specific strategies to strengthen its operational framework and efficient targeting, delivery, monitoring, and evaluation of its pro-poor economic package, as well as its health sector and social protection interventions. Such strategies are immediately needed.

The third strategy on which government must concentrate on should be for medium term. Government of India need to further strengthen its efforts and coordinate with other development partners to stimulate the economy, build capacity for monitoring and evaluation of government programmes, and improve economic resilience against future shocks. It should include the economic recovery of affected industries and entrepreneurs through better access to finance for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises; a credit enhancement facility for infrastructure projects; and the strengthening of public service delivery at national and state levels. States’ finances have already been in very bad shape, which have become even worse due to corona crisis and subsequent lockdowns. The Union government needs to immediately remonetize them, and must have some medium term planning because these are the states that are really dealing with the crisis directly from the frontline.

No doubt, India has taken proactive and decisive measures to contain COVd-19 to protect lives, including the implementation of social distancing, community quarantine, testing, and tracking. However, this has put a brake on the economic engine of the country which now needs a restart. Hunger and disease both are to be tackled effectively to save life. Presently, India’s COVID-19 response programmes include $ 2 billion health sector project to rapidly ramp up test-track-treatment capacity, and $23 billion pro-poor relief package which will provide additional social protection measures targeting the poor, women, vulnerable population and disadvantaged groups. Insurance coverage for all types of health workers engaged the corona battle from the frontline is also included. Around 65 per cent of the package is in the form of direct social assistance and protection to the poor and vulnerable, including women.

Given the enormous requirement of funds in the battle for COVID-19, these spendings are very small. It is here government needs a fresh look at the whole strategy to avoid operational problems in the immediate and short term, and devise the fourth group of strategies for the long term, more so because corona and its impact on the economy and the society in general, and individuals in particular, is to haunt us a long time to come.

It must also be noted that the people under poverty line in India has been sharply increased from around 30 million to around 80-90 million and that too within six weeks of lockdown. An addition of around 50-60 million people in this category has come from the lower middle class because of loss of their livelihoods. Since lockdown is most likely to continue strategically, most of them will need help from the government to survive. They must not be compelled to choose their death either from the disease or hunger, or else we will be losing the fight even after initial achievement in containing the number of infections and death from COVID-19. (IPA Service)