Yemen's official government, which is recognized by the UN and based in Aden, has alerted that the Houthis, who took over a large part of Yemen in 2014, are now planning to damage important underwater cables. These cables, including internet lines under the Red Sea, link Asia and Europe.

The alert was issued following a message from a group associated with the Houthis on the Telegram app, which shared a map of the underwater cable paths in the Red Sea. Is it possible for the Houthis to damage these cables? If they have the chance, they probably will.

The group has said they can easily find maps that show where underwater communication cables go by their coast. These cables run through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is only 20 miles (32 km) wide at its smallest point. However, these fibre optic cables, responsible for carrying 17% of the world’s internet data, are located on the ocean floor, often several hundred meters deep - too deep for divers to reach.

The US and Russia are both believed to have the technology and ships needed to cut these cables. They can send a deep-sea diving vehicle from a larger ship and use a giant cutting tool, like a big pair of scissors, to cut the cables at the bottom of the ocean. However, this task would be much harder for the Houthis to accomplish.

Former Royal Navy submarine commander Rear Adm John Gower has assessed claims of threats to sabotage undersea cables as likely being a bluff, unless they specifically target a terminal. He expressed this viewpoint in comments to the BBC, indicating skepticism about the general threat but acknowledging the potential risk if the attacks are aimed at critical infrastructure points like terminals. He indicated that executing such a threat would require the support of an ally equipped with a submersible and the technology to pinpoint the cables' locations.

The Houthis have formed an alliance with Iran. Through assistance from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah in Lebanon, they have amassed a significant collection of missiles and drones.

For the last eight years, they have launched these missiles and drones at targets including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, and naval ships from the US and UK, along with any ships suspected of being associated with Israel, the US, or the UK. Given this context, the question arises: Could Iran empower the Houthis to sever undersea cables?

Former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe has stated to the media that, based on the Iranian military's order of battle (orbat), there appears to be nothing in their capabilities, especially regarding their submarines, that would enable them to target these undersea cables.

Commander Sharpe mentions that while diving could be considered as a method, the depth and high traffic in those areas would make such an operation very challenging. Agreeing with Rear Admiral Gower, he expresses his belief that the threats are likely a bluff. Assisting an ally in damaging the global undersea internet cables would also represent a hazardous strategy for Tehran.

Both Iran and the US have explicitly expressed their desire to avoid a full-scale conflict with one another. The ongoing conflict involving the US and Iran's proxy forces and allies across the Middle East is being managed with some level of restraint. Before striking bases in Iraq and Syria associated with militias supported by Iran, the US provided several days' notice, enabling important individuals to leave the area. Severing international communication cables would represent a significant escalation that might lead to counterattacks against Iran itself.

Edmund Fitton-Brown, who served as the UK ambassador to Yemen between 2015 and 2017, mentioned to a media outlet that Iran would likely be cautious about extending their campaign of global disruption to include maritime activities. He further suggests that Iranians are more likely to turn to cyber strategies as an initial approach rather than directly targeting infrastructure for sabotage.

In summary, the recent threat issued by the Houthis via their Telegram channel is deemed difficult to execute. Executing such a threat would pose significant technical difficulties and political risks for Iran, which the West perceives as the orchestrator behind all Houthi assaults in the Red Sea.

However, the Houthis have unexpectedly struck before, like their missile attack on a Saudi oil depot in Jeddah right before the 2022 Formula 1 Grand Prix. Additionally, they have withstood almost eight years of heavy air strikes from a Saudi-led coalition, which has not succeeded in undoing their unauthorized seizure of power.

Despite ongoing US-led air strikes targeting their missile and drone facilities, they continue to demonstrate resilience and no inclination to retreat in their confrontation with Western powers. The Houthis, despite being detested and feared by numerous Yemenis living outside their territories, have emerged as a formidable power. (IPA Service)