The question arises, why does the BJP want more alliance partners when, according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP will get on its own 370 seats, and the NDA more than 400? The question also arises whether the Modi government is resorting to “Bharat Ratna politics” to cobble alliances and garner votes even as the road for general elections 2024 is getting paved.

On the morning of February 9, the Modi government conferred the Bharat Ratna, the nation’s highest civilian award, on two former Prime Ministers – former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, who was from Andhra Pradesh, and former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, who happened to be Jayant Chaudhary’s grandfather. The Bharat Ratna was also given to Bihar socialist leader Karpoori Thakur, which had set the stage for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s switch to the NDA.

That said, on February 8, the ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey pegged BJP’s likely tally, “if polls are held today”, at “304”, well south of the Prime Minister’s ambitious count of “370”, which he pronounced in Parliament. Does that mean we should discount Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enthusiasm and tread cautiously down the slippery slope of more alliances for the Bharatiya Janata Party?

Jayant Chaudhary, they said before the Bharat Ratna award to Chaudhary Charan Singh, will present Modi with a Valentine’s Day gift on February 14 and the TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu has been in Delhi holding “exploratory talks” with BJP President JP Nadda and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the BJP’s ‘Chanakya’.

Having said that, let it not be forgotten that the Modi government has a fine working relationship with Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSRCP government. The two cooperate on a host of issues and the ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey reserves all the breaks for the sitting Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and has the TDP trailing.

Media have also spoken of renewed alliance talks with the Akali Dal but the party of Sikhs is rather silent, suffice to say that not every previous partner of the BJP is a Janata Dal United. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar faces the floor test on February 12 and the ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey says Nitish Kumar could only take with him eight percent of Mahagathbandhan vote-share to the BJP-led NDA.

Chandrababu’s TDP left the NDA in 2019. Now, he’s engaged in “exploratory talks” with the BJP, which must be about the BJP’s ties with YSRCP and what happens now that Jaganmohan Reddy‘s sister YS Sharmila is in the Congress. For the record, the ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey doesn’t give the Congress any great advantage because of YS Sharmila’s debut in the Congress.

From all indications, Jaganmohan Reddy sits pretty and neither the BJP nor the TDP benefits courtesy YS Sharmila, who is just another politician who made a party-switch. A BJP-TDP alliance might in fact further strengthen the YSRCP’s pull on voters, Chandrababu Naidu’s “exploratory talks” with JP Nadda and Amit Shah notwithstanding.

The Telangana voter might relent but the Andhra Pradesh voter has a healthy dislike for the Bharatiya Janata Party and it’s an enduring disaffection considering the reigning demographics in the region. The problem for the BJP is that dislike for the saffron party runs deep across South India, so much so that the voter in Kerala is a carbon copy of the voter in Andhra Pradesh.

Tying up with the BJP isn’t going to help the alliance and it is hard to believe what exactly the “exploratory talks” between Naidu and Shah/Nadda must have been apart from exchanging courtesies. Important thing is, why should the BJP dismiss the “unstinting support” of Jaganmohan Reddy? If Modi is not going anywhere post-2024 general elections, Chief Minister Jaganmohan Reddy also isn’t going anywhere any too soon.

The BJP-TDP talks is Modi’s craving for being recognized as an “all-India leader”. It hurts Modi that he’s a glorified satrap of north India’s “gaumutra states” and that the BJP continues to be pariah for the south voter. The ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey does not change this established perception.

So, whether an alliance with the TDP will make a difference is hard to tell. History and geography do not support it. The desire to have allies must be strong but it’s stillborn because Modi does not rule hearts in south India. It is believed Jaganmohan Reddy has “pro-incumbency” on his side, just like that which Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys at the Centre.

So, Nitish Kumar meets the Prime Minister and swears he won't leave the NDA ever again and the BJP has got “in touch” with the Akali Dal after the break-up following the farm bills. Preliminary talks have been held with Akali Dal Chief Sukhbir Badal for an alliance in Punjab. The ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey doesn’t predict much for both parties in Punjab. Blame it on the Aam Aadmi Party, but things have changed since the Farm Bills and Punjab is Waterloo for both the BJP, and the Akali Dal, and whether a tie-up will help is a bad guess.

So, here’s how things stand. A BJP-Akali Dal alliance is game because the two are supposed to be "natural allies". A Jayant Chaudhary-BJP alliance is on the cusp. The Jat leader may agree to two Lok Sabha seats and one RS seat. The Samajwadi Party will be the loser. As also INDIA. Chandrababu Naidu isn’t going to help the BJP and vice versa. The BJP cannot make any further headway with new and renewed alliances. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be remembered if and when Nitish Kumar does a Nitish on Modi, too. For now, the BJP-JDU alliance appears strong. About any more BJP alliances with regional parties is in the realm of speculation. (IPA Service)