Despite strong opposition from Pakistan's military establishment, independent candidates supported by former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have pulled off a surprising win. They've secured the most seats in the National Assembly, becoming the largest political group in the country winning 99 seats.

The Election Commission of Pakistan finally released results on Friday, showing that the party, while successful, did not win enough seats to secure a majority. Voter participation was noticeably low, with only 42% of eligible voters casting ballots. This is a significant drop compared to the typical 50% turnout in the past three general elections.

The low turnout was partly due to the significant obstacles faced by PTI candidates. They were not allowed to use their familiar cricket bat symbol, and many important party leaders were arrested. The PTI showed its ability to adapt. Even with setbacks, they effectively used social media to maintain a strong position in the election," said Farwa Aamer of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York. .She emphasized that Pakistan's military establishment is a crucial factor that cannot be ignored during government formation.

The PTI's main rivals, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz ( PML-N ) ,party of three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and the ex-president Asif Ali Zardari’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), have won enough seats 71, and 53 to potentially form the next government. It seems likely they will receive support from the powerful military establishment.

The rivalry between Sharif and Zardari poses a challenge to the stability of any coalition government they might form. Both Sharif and Zardari have had troubled relationships with Pakistan's military establishment. The military has played a role in both supporting and undermining their governments in the past, sometimes even imprisoning them.

Former ambassador Maleeha Lodhi warns that a fragile coalition government may not be able to make the difficult choices needed to address Pakistan's economic crisis. This could hinder any chances of a lasting political stability.

Pakistan barely escaped a devastating economic collapse, similar to Sri Lanka's recent default, in early 2023. The crisis was averted due to last-minute negotiations with the IMF for emergency financial aid. China, Pakistan's biggest lender and close friend, helped Pakistan stay afloat during tough IMF negotiations by refinancing around $7 billion in low-interest loans.

Shahbaz Sharif, deputy leader of the PML-N, stated that if his party forms the next government, their top priority will be to renegotiate a financial aid package with the IMF prior to the current program's expiration in April. He painted a dire picture, warning that without a new IMF deal, Pakistan would plunge into bankruptcy, bringing unimaginable misery to its people.

Former envoy Lodhi reassured that China's substantial $28 billion investment in Pakistan's energy and infrastructure sectors (CPEC program) would remain secure despite political changes in Islamabad. CPEC is part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, a vast project designed to connect China's economy with the rest of the world, with a particular focus on developing and middle-income countries in the Global South. She stressed that CPEC enjoys widespread political support in Pakistan, unaffected by the election. Additionally, China will remain a strategic priority for Pakistan regardless of the leadership change.

The PTI alleged vote-rigging due to the unprecedented delay in releasing election results, a delay which also raised concerns about irregularities among Pakistani journalists. The military's influence, including periods of direct rule, has undermined the integrity of all 11 of Pakistan's general elections. The military remains the most powerful force in Pakistani politics. The delayed announcement of final results in certain areas contradicted the initial counting trends shown on television, which indicated a PTI advantage. This discrepancy sparked controversy.

The election commission fuelled controversy when it mysteriously stopped providing certified results from individual polling stations to candidates and journalists. This violated election rules designed to ensure transparency and prevent such disputes. Despite the Chief Election Commissioner's ultimatum for results within half an hour, the final outcome for half of the National Assemblies 266 constituencies remained unclear until the early hours of Saturday morning.

Historically, Pakistan's general election results were made available by 2 am the next morning. This year's election breaks with that precedent. International powers, including the US, EU, and Britain, condemned irregularities in Pakistan's election and called for a comprehensive investigation.

Despite the obstacles of having many candidates campaign as fugitives, the PTI still emerged as the party with the most seats. Much of the PTI leadership faces anti-terrorism charges related to violent protests at military facilities that occurred in May of last year. These protests erupted after Khan's arrest on corruption charges. The government and military accused Khan and his associates of attempting to overthrow the government and incite rebellion within the army.

As predicted, the PTI dominated in their stronghold of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Unexpectedly, they also performed well in Punjab, a populous province critical for securing a majority in the National Assembly's 266 directly elected seat. Many of Punjab's seats were won by Khan-backed independent candidates

The PML-N's poor performance, particularly in Punjab and along the Karakoram Highway in Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa (KKH), might discourage Sharif from pursuing another term as prime minister. His loss in Mansehra a mountainous district along the KKH, further weakens his position. Sharif strongly dislikes the idea of leading a fragile coalition government and has expressed this displeasure to reporters.

Instead, he might once again rely on his brother Shahbaz, who was at the helm of the wide-ranging coalition government that succeeded Khan following his defeat in a confidence vote in April 2022, and who remained in power until the previous October. Shahbaz acted as the representative for the PML-N during the initial phase of power-sharing discussions with Zardari on Friday night.

Conversely, the PTI's forfeiture of its emblem because of not conducting legitimate internal elections indicates that the party faces obstacles ahead of vying for control of the National Assembly, and the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.

Until the PTI conducts internal elections that meet the election commission's standards, its winning candidates must align themselves with another party within 72 hours following the official announcement of the final results. If not, they will be disqualified from voting for women and minority candidates who are set to compete for 60 indirectly-elected reserved seats in the National Assembly soon.

Therefore, the PTI would forfeit its proportional one-third allocation of those seats to the PML-N, PPP, and other parties, as well as its status as the largest single party. A comparable risk looms over independent members of Pakistan's four provincial assemblies, who are supported by PTI and were elected concurrently with their counterparts in the federal parliament.

Interim PTI chairman Gohar Ali Khan mentioned that the independent candidates could affiliate themselves with a minor allied Shia Muslim religious party that secured one out of the 266 directly elected seats on Thursday.

Alternatively, the PPP of former president Zardari, who is celebrated as Pakistan's foremost architect of coalitions, had earlier proposed sanctuary to PTI-supported independents, but this offer was immediately dismissed by a rightfully skeptical Khan. The PPP now controls the balance of power, having strengthened its grip on the southern Sindh province in Thursday's election.

Furthermore, it holds the highest number of seats among any party in the tumultuous western province of Balochistan, where the vote was typically divided among several competitors, positioning it favourably to assemble a coalition government at the provincial level.

In sum, the Pakistan politics stands at crossroads. Imran Khan supported independents have emerged as the largest group followed by PML-N and the PPP. The latter two may form a coalition at the present to form the government with the blessings of the army but Imran Khan has emerged supreme with greater stature after elections by confronting the army.. This will have impact on the Pak people in the coming days making the smooth governance of the coalition government difficult. (IPA Service)