This new transformation of Rahul had indeed come as a spicy surprise for the people of Uttar Pradesh. Content of his speech, thrust of the message and manner of exhorting the people have undergone a complete metamorphosis ever since he descended in Varanasi. His aggression was to be seen and realised. His speech did not sound like the oration by a traditional Congress leader. His discourse sent a clear message that a New Left has emerged.

Gandhi emphasised the need for a nationwide caste census and said there was no proper representation. He urged the people to realise they were being continuously “distracted” from their troubles by the Modi government. Local newspapers reported though Rahul Gandhi had turned up in his former constituency Amethi “after 724 days,” the “entire town turned up to greet him.”

He sought to know from the Dalits, OBCs, EBCs and minorities: “What is the population of backwards?” In every meeting he reiterates: “OBCs are 50% of the population. Dalits are 15% and tribals are 8%. Together, they form 73% of our country. Not a single backward person owns the top 200 companies. In the top management, in media, in the top administration of big hospitals, how many people are from this 73%? Zero. 90 officers run the country. They distribute the budget. Only 3 of these 90 IAS officers and Dalit and Adivasis.” In fact, this has been well received by this section of people.

For underlining their deprivation and exploitation, he said, “Your (backward) people will find their names in the list of workers, MGNREGA. But your attention is being diverted. Sometimes, you will be told to see what’s happening in Pakistan. Sometimes, you will be told ‘Look, China has come’”.

A deeper look at his attempt to change the character of Congress would make it explicit that it was a deliberate move from Rahul. He knew that the rhetoric was not going to make much difference. The Dalits, OBC, EBC and Muslims need to be made conscious of their rights and their role for ameliorating their socio-economic lives.

What was quite amazing was he exhorted the Dalits, OBCs, EBCs to assert their identity and fight for their rights in the bastions of feudal lords — Pratapgarh, Amethi, Raebareli — who enjoy the reputation of being die-hard Congress supporters. By choosing to attack the feudal relations and oppression, Rahul sent a clear message that the Congress is in the process of changing and is no more an instrument to protect and espouse the cause of the feudal lords and landed gentry.

Rahul’s postulation has not only traumatized the BJP and RSS, it has also turned the Samajwadi Party leadership panicky. Intellectuals, academics and political analysts of Uttar Pradesh have started trying to correlate his change as the incarnation of Kanshi Ram and Bhimrao Ambedkar, Baba Saheb. While the BJP has constituted a committee of senior BJP leaders to monitor the development programmes for the Dalits, OBCs, EBC, the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is resorting to the tactics of denying more space to Congress, by forcing it to contest only 17 Lok Sabha seats.

Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) leader Pallavi Patel and the Samajwadi Party (SP) MLA from Sirathu also joined the yatra in Varanasi. It was expected that Akhilesh would join Rahul in Varanasi, as this is the constituency of Modi. Political analysts feel Akhilesh joining the yatra would have sent a very strong message. But his not joining the Yatra is out of the sense of insecurity with he has been suffering.

Akhilesh was to join the yatra in Rae Bareli on Tuesday. But he did not turn up. Just a day ahead of his participation, Akhilesh said that he and his party will join Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra only on one condition: Congress must finalise the seat sharing and accept his offer of 17 seats to the old party. Akhilesh was categorical. Samajwadi Party will not take part in the yatra before seat-sharing with the Congress in Uttar Pradesh was finalized.

In fact, the entire anti-Modi political forces and parties are shocked at this obstinate attitude of Akhilesh. They view his setting condition for participating at the Yatra as the pure case of blackmailing. The poll experts hold the view that Akhilesh is systematically losing his support base. Dalits have already deserted SP. Even the Muslims are not comfortable. Many prominent Muslim SP leaders have left the party.

Muslims have yet not forgotten the ill-treatment meted out by Akhilesh to prominent Muslim face in state Azam Khan. With the aim to assuage the Muslim sentiment Akhilesh today cleared the name of Afzal Ansari, brother of gangster-politician Mukhtar Ansari for Lok Sabha election. He is at present sitting BSP MP from Ghazipur. He was sentenced to four years in April 2023 in a Gangsters Act case, and is now out on bail, with his disqualification as an MP temporarily suspended by the Supreme Court.

In recent months the Muslims are getting inclined towards Congress. Muslims have substantial population in at least ten districts; Ghazipur, Amroha, Ballia, Mau, Azamgarh, Bhadohi, Jaunpur, Mirzapur and Chandauli. Rahul’s Yatra has come as a ray of hope for the Muslims. It is expected that they may shift to Congress in this election. Obviously, the SP will be denied of their votes. Akhilesh nurses the hope that in case Congress accedes to his blackmailing tactics, his party may win some seats having high Muslim concentration.

Muslims had emotional attachment to Mulayam Singh. But it is not the same with Akhilesh. He has alienated them. Except some upper-caste Muslims, those from Ajlaf and Arzal sections are likely to rally behind Congress. They belong to the OBC category. Significantly, the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and Modi have been desperately trying to reach out to the Pasmanda (poor and Dalit Muslims) but they too are inclined towards Congress.

Akhilesh apprehends that in case the issue is not sorted at the earliest would be put under pressure once Rahul traverses through western region of the state. In that area, the Jats and Muslims are hostile to BJP. The farmers’ movement which was launched on 13th of this month, has further alienated the Jats from BJP. In 13 of the 18 districts of western UP –Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Meerut, Bijnor, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Bulandshahr, Mathura, Aligarh, Hathras, Agra and Moradabad – Jats make up 10-15% of the population. They are vocal and aggressive too. Jats are categorised as OBCs in UP, Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. Obviously Rahul’s thrust on caste census has caught their imagination.

Unfortunately, Akhilesh’s posturing has helped the saffron brigade and RSS and BJP cadres are feeling elated. However, his uncle Shivpal Singh is said to be opposed to this decision of Akhilesh. Some SP leaders describe this move of Akhilesh as suicidal and according to the sources majority of the Yadavs view his tactics as counterproductive. Apprehensions are also being expressed that rich and affluent section of the Yadavs switch their allegiance to BJP just ahead of the D-day.

Samajwadi Party leaders blame Akhilesh for Jayant Chaudhary quitting his PDA. Once the BJP came to know of arrogant attitude of Akhilesh towards Jayant, the BJP in a strategic move honoured Charan Singh. This has further distanced the Jats from SP. Akhilesh is not in the mood to relent is evident from his action. He has fielded his candidates from Lakhimpur Kheri and Farrukhabad, which Congress held earlier. On Monday, Akhilesh released a second list of 11 party candidates. Out of these, at least three seats are said to be winnable seat for Congress and the party has demanded these seats. (IPA Service)