In the absence of a political wave, the factors which usually influence the outcome of elections or by-elections include: performance of the contemporary government, caste factor and the nature of political alliances.

Apparently there is no wave in Haryana. Despite the lax administration and the red-tape marring the government’s functioning, the performance of the Bhupinder Singh Hooda-led Congress government has drawn applauses from different central forums. It will mainly be the caste-factor and the changed political alignments which will determine the outcome of the Hisar by-poll.

Haryana politicians are known for their fragile political loyalties and the state’s political parties for changing their nomenclatures and alliances. During the very first two years after its birth on November 1, 1966, the state earned the stigma of being a pioneer of defection politics in India. Within the politically turbulent 1966-68 period, 44 percent MLAs in the 81-member Assembly had defected -one five times, two four times, three thrice, four twice and 34 once. Of them, Gaya Lal defected thrice within a fortnight giving India’s political dictionary the new term of “Aya Ram Gaya Ram”. Bhajan Lal gave a new dimension to defection politics when he converted his Janata Party government into a Congress government after Indira Gandhi’s return to power in 1980.

Bhajan Lal changed his political loyalties four times, the last time quitting the Congress after he was denied Chief Ministership by the party’s central leadership which selected Bhupinder Singh Hooda to head the government after the Congress won the 2005 Assembly elections. The Devi Lal clan changed the titles of its party and its alliances four times. Bansi Lal shifted his political loyalties twice. The BJP changed its regional allies five times –three times with Devi Lal’s political outfits, once with Bansi Lal’s Haryana Vikas Party and the fifth time now by forming an alliance with Haryana Janhit Congress founded by Bhajan Lal after he quit Congress in 2005.

The Devi Lal clan-led parties past successes have largely been due to the overwhelming support of the party’s Jat vote bank. But the arrogant attitude of Devi Lal’s political heir Om Parkash Chautala during his 1999-2005 rule fanned the anti-incumbency sentiment. As a result, the Jats turned against him and his Indian National Lok Dal could secure only nine seats in the 90-member House in the 2005 elections depriving the party even the status of the official Opposition in the Assembly.

But in the 2009 prematurely held Assembly elections, the INLD was able to recover a large section of its lost Jat vote which helped it win 31 seats. The Congress could secure only 40 seats. It was only after Hooda lured the seven Independents and five of the six Haryana Jan Hit Congress MLAs that the Congress was able to again form its government.

The new factor that has emerged on Haryana’s electoral scene is the formation of the HJC-BJP alliance. Although the two parties currently do not have much popular support and effective organisational networks in Haryana, their alliance has provided a platform to non-Jats to vent their anger against the Congress government’s allegedly pro-Jat tilt. No doubt, Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda has been stoutly denying the charge that his government discriminates against any community. Yet, if the ground reports are any indication, the Congress government has, rightly or wrongly, acquired an image of being a protector of Jats interests to the disadvantage of non-Jats. This may also be partly due to the government’s vacillating attitude in dealing with the Jat-dominated Khap Panchayats and the Jats demand of reservations in the Other Backward classes list.

The Hissar by-election will be triangular contest between the Congress candidate Jai Parkash who had earlier won and lost elections from the constituency, Ajay Chautala, son of the INLD supremo Om Parkash Chautala and the HJC-BJP alliance candidate Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of late Bhajan Lal whose death has caused the by-election.

In the caste-ridden Haryana’s current political environment, the prospects of the Congress nominee will be determined by whether the party is able to win back at least a section of the Jat vote bank that had gone back to the INLD in 2009. Jat vote bank is going to be divided between the Congress and the INLD. The second factor which will influence the prospects of the Congress nominee would be the ruling party’s ability to retain its non-Jat and Dalit support base.

The non-Jat vote is also going to be divided between the Congress and HJC-BJP alliance. Going by the ground reports about the mood of the non-Jats, the alliance candidate is likely to win over a considerable section of the non-Jat votes. It was not without reason that the Congress central leadership was, a couple of days before the HJC formed an alliance with the BJP, reportedly toying with the idea of bringing Kuldeep Bishnoi back into the Congress. It obviously apprehended that if the HJC formed an alliance with the BJP it would cause a dent in the Congress’s non-Jat vote bank.

The electoral fate of Ajay Chautala will be determined by the ability of the party not only to retain its Jat support base it had won back from the Congress in 2009 but also to expand it further. If it succeeds in the endeavour it will be a setback for the Congress.

The Hisar by-election is going to be a high-stake fight between the state’s mainstream parties. (IPA Service)