Since 2011, when the Trinamool Congress (TMC) came to power, there has been a steady exodus from the ranks of other parties to the ruling party. The trend was noticed first within the state Congress. Gradually it spread to the Left parties like the Forward Bloc and the RSP. Of late even people from the CPI(M) have started to defect to the TMC camp.

And now in 2014, suddenly there has occurred a diversion in the flow. Workers and supporters of most parties including the TMC, are joining the new bright planet in the Bengal’s political firmament, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This follows the BJP's spectacular success in the Lok Sabha polls.

Ironically, two BJP leaders, Mr. Paras Dutta had joined the TMC in its post 2011 salad days. It is easy to criticise them for their impatience now. But after 2011, even the staunchest BJP supporter could not have predicted the kind of massive victory their party achieved in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In Bengal, the BJP had once won 10% of the aggregate votes in an election, but thereafter its share had rarely crossed 5 or 6 per cent.

As for defection from other parties to the BJP is concerned, especially from the Left parties, the explanation is simple. From leaders to common workers, parties like the RSP, Forward Bloc etc consistently reported that they faced great difficulties in functioning normally. They could not organise protest rallies or marches as before. The police would not grant permission. In addition, thousands upon thousands Left workers and leaders were implicated in got-up cases, leading to their arrest and indefinite imprisonment. TMC supporters attacked their offices and killed them during clashes, as the police remained indifferent.

The state Government did not respond to repeated requests from opposition parties for a dialogue on such matters. Neither the police, nor the State Government, nor the TMC as a party, ever responded to hundreds of letters and appeals from the left parties to address such issues.

'The CPI(M), always the main political target for Mamata Banerjee as the leading Left party, was the worst sufferer. At least 50 of our supporters have been killed to date, with hardly any arrests or any police action,' says a CPI(M) State Committee member. Defection from the CPI(M) ranks to the TMC is a recent phenomenon, climaxed last month by the crossing over of an MLA, a woman. Her reason, as endorsed by CPI(M) Secretary Mr, Biman Bose was, ' I just could not function. I faced a social boycott and could not step out of my home because of TMC pressure. The police did not help.'

In addition to minimum security, there were other incentives for supporters of other parties to join the TMC. The ruling party followed a definite procedure in encouraging such movement from other parties. It weakened the base of other parties and helped swell TMC ranks. It brought the party rich dividends as seen during the 2013 panchayat polls and 2014 LS polls. It was a common complaint that mostly the militant elements from opposition parties, including the Congress had been subjected to police pressure and harassment. They were spared only after they joined the TMC.

'Such elements prevented supporters of other parties from voting in the panchayat or LS polls,' alleged a CPI leader.

Apart from security, defectors especially from the Congress were given high positions within TMC district and other units. This created disaffection from the old and 'new' TMC men, which led to dissidence in places.

The unexpected resurgence of the BJP has put a spanner in the works as far as the TMC is concerned. Realising that a shift to the BJP can not only ensure physical security but also led to the possibility of financial gains in the medium and long term, most political activists are joining the party in droves. BJP President Rahul Sinha claims that 'On average some 7000/8000 people are turning up to join us daily'. The claim has surprised most observers, but there can be no doubt that people are joining by the hundreds. They range from all parties, from the Left to the TMC itself!

Sinha claims that admission forms have been exhausted and more have been ordered, to register new willing entrants. For now, their names, addresses and bare details have been maintained. The party has not followed the TMC line of immediately rewarding defectors. It carries out a check on the antecedents of entrants, mostly through local party units. The 'new' people would go through a probation period, it appears.

This has put the cat among the TMC pigeons. Interestingly, victims of inner TMC rivalry and tensions, especially the kin of murder victims are joining the BJP openly. The most prominent among them is the son of the late Sagar Ghosh, Hriday, who lost his father through group violence and got no police help. He joined the BJP along with other dissident supporters.

Those who join include a good number of Muslims, which negates the TMC claim as the only party that fights for them! Worse, angry and frustrated TMC supporters, egged on by top leaders and emboldened by a partisan police, have launched several attacks against the new entrants of the BJP in many areas. The outcome has been negative, in that some Muslims have been killed, further alienating the community from the TMC.

With a determined leader like BJP President Amit Shah targeting Bengal as a new growth area in the East, the TMC is clearly headed for harder days ahead. With its increased strength and decisive lead among voters of 24 Assembly seats and second position status in 20 additional seats in a house of 294 and the steadily weakening TMC reeling over the Sarada Chit Fund scam charges and total economic stagnation, the BJP is truly on a roll.

'Mr, Shah is learning Bengali so he can address local people in their language in rallies that will be held during the Civic and later, the Assembly polls. The RSS too has been expanding its work steadily over the years and the preparation is now paying off,” says a state BJP leader. There can be only one message for the TMC: take heed. (IPA Service)