It has to be recognized that the BJP’s coming to power in West Bengal in 2026 state assembly elections, the results of which were announced on May 4 this year, has brought about some changes in the perspective of bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries offering both dangers and opportunities. As regards opportunities, for the first time, Narendra Modi is having his own party government in Bengal led by the chief minister Subhendu Adhikari through whom, he can implement all the central proposals related to Bangladesh.PM will have to face no resistance to the draft Teesta Project which has been with the centre for more than a decade due to strong opposition from the former chief minister Mamata Banerjee.

The centre can take forward the Teesta Water Sharing Treaty with Bangladesh and get it signed if the Tarique government agrees. There are doubts whether the new Bangladesh PM will agree to the earlier draft prepared during Sheikh Hasina regime. In the last few months, there have been big demands from the experts as also the main opposition Jamaat E Islami for revising the draft Treaty more in Dhaka’s favour. So even if the centre is in a position to present a draft with full concurrence of the Bengal BJP government, the process can be marked by tough negotiations. But still, the centre’s big advantage is that Bengal government is with the centre. So whatever, the centre agrees in talks with the Bangladesh government, that will get immediate nod from Subhendu government.

But compared to the original draft Teesta Water Sharing Treaty, the new situation in 2026 has been complicated by Bangladesh’s commitment to the China backed Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. This is a huge project involving massive investments. The draft suggests dredging and embankment works position near the crucial Siliguri Corridor, the 22 km strip that remains India’s overland link to its north eastern states. Naturally, the Teesta discussions this time are going to be crucial for both the countries, but more so for India.

As against this decade long pending issue, some new irritants have emerged in India Bangladesh bilateral relations following the Subhendu government’s new orders. The Bengal chief minister has issued instructions to the police to send any alleged infiltrator or illegal migrants from Bangladesh to send them to the BSF without presenting them to the courts. This, according to the lawyers, the CM wants to bypass the courts to organize forced pushovers to Bangladesh. That way, any person can be termed as an infiltrators and pushed over to the other side. The concerned person will get no scope for defending himself.

Bangladesh political circles have taken note of this. They are monitoring the developments on the border. According to the, the 1975 joint guidelines on border, there are some procedures and scope for discussions between the two border states officials before final pushover. They say, what has been ordered is a violation of that understanding and Bangladesh will take it up with India.

Unfortunately for Indian foreign ministry, every utterance by the Bengal chief minister about border fencing and throwing out the Bangladeshis, strengthens the anti-Indian sentiment. That helps China in making more inroads into Bangladesh. The Indian foreign ministry officials may try their best to improve relations with Dhaka in their own diplomatic manner, but those will go waste if the Bengal CM continues to deal the sensitive citizens issue as a street fighter and uses derogatory language.

PMO has to seriously take note of the fact that Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman will be visiting China next June and will be holding very vital discussions with the Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping on economic and security issues bearing implications for India also. Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir will be visiting Dhaka soon after Tarique. Is back to Dhaka from Beijing.. So a new triangle is being built up with Bangladesh, Pakistan and China participating.

Indian Prime Minister had been too busy in the last few weeks visiting the Gulf countries and then the Nordic countries in Europe as also Italy. It is in the best interests of India if PM now devotes some time to improving relations with Bangladesh and Nepal, our two immediate neighbours. Indian diplomacy is not working well in South Asia. It is high time that PMO takes priority steps to improve relations with Bangladesh. (IPA Service)